Alan Brugler - Corn Futures Fractionally Lower, But September Up on Lack of Deliveries

Corn prices are fractionally lower to begin this holiday shortened report week, with in delivery September the exception and up 1 cent.  Corn prices were fractionally to 2 1/4 cents lower pm Friday. There have still been zero delivery notices against September corn futures, with the oldest long now dated 11/27/20. 

Ahead of the USDA reports, analysts surveyed anticipate increased corn stocks. The trade average guess per Bloomberg is to see 42.4 mbu of extra corn to start the 21/22 season, with new crop stocks figured 99 mbu higher at 1.341 billion. Traders are also expecting to see increased production on Friday with a trade average guess of 175.8 bpa (Reuters). The average of pre report estimates is for 14.942 bbu, which implies increased harvested acreage vs. the August report.  

IHS Markit forecasts corn acreage at 94.4m acres planted and 86m harvested with a 175.4 bpa yield. NASS mentioned intentions to review acreage estimates for next Friday’s report, with USDA currently at 92.7 planted and 84.5m harvested acres. 

Trade ideas for USDA crop condition ratings this afternoon are running UNCH to 1 point better in the good/ex categories. 

Sep 21 Corn  closed at $5.08, down 8 1/4 cents, up 1 this morning

Nearby Cash  was $5.16 ¾ on Friday, down 3 1/2 cents,

Dec 21 Corn  closed at $5.24, down 1 1/2 cents, UNCH this morning

Mar 22 Corn  closed at $5.33 1/4, down 3/4 cent, down ¼ this morning

New Crop Cash  was $5.08 on Friday, down 7/8 cent,